Iran Current Political Situation
Hasan Rouhani’s presidency can be seen, at least in part, as a result of these conflicts. Unlike Ahmadinejad, he comes from the ranks of the clergy, has close ties to their high-ranking representatives and is considered loyal to Khamenei.
In recent years, it has been of central interest to the Islamic Republic that Bashar al-Assad’s Syria does not cease to be Iran’s most important ally in the Arab region, which is why it has repeatedly intervened directly in the Syrian civil war – even though Rouhani has signaled concession here as well . Irrespective of this, Iran is viewed by its opponents as a participant in the war. This shows, in addition to the attack on the Iranian embassy in Beirut in November 2013, above all the attack on the Iranian parliament in Tehran and on the mausoleum of Ayatollah Khomeini in 2017. The Iranian state media (expected) also reported Saudi Arabiaand America are complicit, but generally speaking, the Islamic State is responsible. The same applies to the attack on a military parade in Ahwaz in southwest Iran in September 2018. While the Islamic State quickly took responsibility, the Iranian government – in addition to Saudi Arabia – also blamed European countries and appointed the ambassadors of Denmark and the Netherlands and the UK.
According to internetsailors, the political and in particular the economic situation in Iran continues to be shaped primarily by the conflict over the Iranian nuclear program. With an end to the international economic and financial sanctions, Iran would be in a position to export oil again and, in return, to award contracts to western companies to modernize its infrastructure in many areas. International financial transactions would be possible again, trading with Iranian companies would become easier again and the Iranian state would have access to still frozen funds of over 100 billion euros. While the Iranian state hopes that these opportunities will strengthen its economic competitiveness, most of the Iranian citizens hope that their living conditions will improve quickly. From the beginning of 2016, the sanctions were actually gradually lifted again by the USA. This applied in a first step, in August 2018 the purchase of gold, precious metals and US dollar on the one hand, and the importation of aircraft and aircraft parts andererseits. In a second step, This will affect the Iranian oil and banking sector from November 2018, which would hit the Iranian economy much harder. So far, the sanctions are set solely by the United States reinstated, but already the pressure on European companies from doing business with Iran grows withdraw. Accordingly, as the exports of German companies to Iran are already significantly declined.
In this context, however, at the turn of the year 2017/18, there were public protests, especially young Iranians in Tehran and other cities, including Mashhad. As with similar expressions of discontent in recent years, the focus is on the University of Tehran. The information on the number of participants varies. The demands of the protesters are varied, but the core is criticism of the economic situation of many young Iranians. On the other hand, there are also demonstrations by supporters of the Iranian government, but they are organized by the state. It is interesting that Iranian state television describes some of the demands as legitimate, and President Rouhani describes the protesters’ right to protest stressed.
In the spring of 2019, the situation increasingly came to a head, politically and militarily. Among other things, the US warships in the Persian Gulf sent their troops in the region again strengthened and its embassy staff from Iraq for security parts deducted. In the first few weeks of 2020, this smoldering conflict suddenly intensified. After the killing of the Iranian general Qassem Soleimani, commander of the Jerusalem Revolutionary Guard Brigades, the rocket fire in positions also used by Americans in Iran, and the shooting down of a Ukrainian airliner by the Iranian air defense, the conflict continues to offer enormous potential for escalation. Even more so, once again as the same time, the dispute over the nuclear agreement (JCPOA) to focus increases, especially with European signatories of the agreement. Both conflicts, which cannot be viewed independently of one another, are accompanied domestically by demonstrations from various political camps. While the state-organized funeral rallies the supporters of the Islamic Republic demonstrated publicly their support for Soleimani, it came as a result of the shootdown, especially in the student milieu of the country and especially in Tehran demonstrations against the Islamic Republic in general and the Revolutionary Guard in particular, who are particularly unpopular in these milieus.