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The Clinton election campaign assumed that the Obama coalition would run again in 2016. They therefore ran an election campaign that focused on the historical by being able to vote for the first female president of the United States (just as it was historic to be able to vote for the first black president of the United States in 2008 ). But already in the nomination campaign , it became clear that Clinton had problems in parts of the coalition , especially younger voters. Clinton’s challenger from the left, Bernie Sanders, took younger voters by storm and made the battle to be nominated much more intriguing than anyone had thought. Although Sanders’ voters were disappointed after he lost the nomination, it was assumed that they, as in previous years, would eventually stand behind their party’s candidate. But even though younger voters (18 to 29) are further to the left politically than older ones, Clinton failed to attract these voters to the same degree as Obama: 55 percent of them voted for Clinton, down from 60 percent who voted for Obama in 2012. 37 percent of younger voters voted for Trump.

Clinton also had an unexpected problem among female voters. Many believed that Trump’s many condescending statements about women would punish him among female voters – that more women than usual would vote for the Democratic Party. This turned out not to hold true. Although 70 percent of voters (election day polls on election day) expressed that Trump’s statements about women were problematic, 30 percent of them still voted for Trump.

“The gender gap” – the difference between voting for men and women – was 11 percentage points. 53 percent of male voters voted for him versus 42 percent of female doctors. This is the same proportion of male and female voters who voted for Bill Clinton in 1996 and Barack Obama in 2012. In other words, Hillary Clinton did not get a higher proportion of women to vote for her than former Democratic candidates. This suggests that the party was more important than gender for Republican voters – female voters who normally vote Republican did not switch to Clinton because she was a female candidate.

It is indisputable that fewer traditional Democrats in the Midwest voted. Furthermore, women voted for Trump to a greater extent than expected. We can therefore state that Clinton had a certain “enthusiasm problem” especially among younger voters and among voters in the Midwest. It became clear already when Sanders came in from the sidelines and excited far more nomination voters than anyone would have thought.

4: The challenger

Donald Trump, businessman and reality TV star , went into the Republican nomination battle in June 2015 – to much laughter . In the speech he gave, he referred to Mexicans as drug dealers, criminals and rapists (but ended by assuming that some of them were nice people). The speech was described as incoherent and prejudiced and was enough that most political commentators judged him north and down right from the start.

In addition , Trump’s opponents underestimated him in the nomination campaign . The Republican candidates consisted of a number of established and respected Republicans. For example, there was a lot of hope for the young Latino Marco Rubio, a senator from Florida with Cuban parents. Others argued that Jeb Bush, the former governor of Florida, with his political network and the support of wealthy donors, would easily defeat his opponents. While the “serious” candidates were busy fighting each other, Trump rose slowly but surely in the polls.

Nor did the media take Trump seriously; they assumed that one of his many discriminatory statements against Mexicans, Muslims or women would eventually force him to end the election campaign. But one day he got a lot of attention . Until this probably happens (it seems like they were thinking), they – mostly advertising-financed media – would like to enjoy the high ratings Trump got when they showed him on their news channels. Thus, channels such as CNN and others spent a lot of time broadcasting live from the election campaign to Trump. It gave Trump a lot of “free” media attention. Usually, such advertising on TV is something the candidate pays dearly for. As the director of the TV channel CBS said: ” Trump may not be good for the United States, a country located in North America according to Medicinelearners, but he is very good for CBS.”

Contrary to the preliminary analyzes, Trump won nomination after nomination, which is often well ahead of the many competitors . Ted Cruz was the candidate who won the second most states. Cruz waited a long time to stand behind Trump as the party’s nominated candidate. Cruz actually gave a speech at the party’s national convention in July 2016 in which he failed to support Trump and instead said that he hoped Republicans would vote for candidates further down the ballot and that they believed were loyal to the Constitution. The speech caused a great deal of controversy. Cruz still supported Trump in the end, but only as late as September.

But despite the nomination, Trump failed to unite the party behind him. Many foreign policy veterans in the Republican Party were particularly clear in their condemnation of Trump. In a public letter signed by 50 acclaimed foreign and security policy experts, including former CIA director Michael Hayden, these Republican members of the “#NeverTrump” movement said that President Trump would pose a threat to the nation’s security.